Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United UEFA Champions League prediction: who is more likely to win in the first leg?

The draw was made, and finally, Club Atlético de Madrid already knows its opponent in the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League 2021-2022. It will be none other than the Manchester United Footbol Club of his nemesis, Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro. In what will undoubtedly be a very tough stop considering the present of the Colchoneros. 

The red and white team, which miraculously qualified for the next round in the last match by beating Porto 3-1, has not been having a decent present, and each passing match seems to be sinking it in a sea of crisis and uncertainties. Despite this, they have very important names and if they have a good strategy they could win this first match at home. 

On the English side, it is the same situation. The arrival of Cristiano Ronaldo was not enough to cover the defensive problems of the team, which although improved with the arrival of Ralf Rangnick, still has a long way to go to improve if they want to have enough to eliminate the Colchonero team. 

Who is the favorite in the first leg?

Undoubtedly, based on a poor record of two matches played in the European Championship at the same stage (Round of 16), Atletico Madrid is the favorite with a match won at home by a wide difference of 3 goals. 

What are Atletico Madrid's chances of defining the series in Spain?

If the record is good, the Colchonero can define the series in Spain with more than two goals at a probability of 63%. 

What are Manchester United's chances of getting a good result in Spain?

Very little, since according to history, in the only meeting they had in the Round of 16 of the European Championship Tournament, they lost by three goals. 

These contexts explained in statistical terms, distort the samples and leave us with a graph similar to this:

Cristiano Ronaldo is a determining factor

Yes, we are facing one of the best players in the world with an overall of 97% according to FIFA data, so we would see all the hopes of Manchester United turned to a single player, which would vary the statistics as follows:

Manchester United does not score goals: 54% of probability.

Manchester United scores a goal: 37% chance

Manchester United scores two goals: 11% probability

What system is applied to predict this data?

In El Futbolero Spain, we decided to apply our own measurement system based on historical data of both teams helped by "The Professor", knowledge of statistical patterns and Poisson distributions applicable through Python programming. 

Thanks to this we can predict the number of goals that each team can score based on historical results.