Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United 2022 Champions League prediction: Who is more likely to win in the first leg?

Atlético de Madrid will play against Manchester United at the Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid next Wednesday corresponding to the round of 16 in the Champions League. The Rojiblancos struggled to qualify to the next round but after a win against Porto in the last match of the group stage they booked their ticket. Simeone's team is having ups and downs in the current season and has not been able to show consistency in LaLiga and the Champions League.

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Meanwhile, Manchester United have had a similar season. The Red Devils fired Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and hired the German Ralf Rangninck to bring back United to winning ways, however, that has not been possible, as they have had many ups and downs as well. The team led by Cristiano was able to qualify in first place in the group stage and were paired in the draw with the Spanish team.

Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United: Match Information

Date:  Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Time: 15:00 ET (US) / 20:00 (UK)

Location: Wanda Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain.

Who is the favorite in the first leg?

Based on a poor record of two games in a match at the same stage of the Champions League (Round of 16), Atlético Madrid are the favorites with a match won at home by a wide three-goal margin.

How likely are Atletico de Madrid to define the series in Spain?

If history is anything to go by, Los Colchoneros can clinch the series in Spain with more than two goals at a 63% probability.

How likely is Manchester United to get a positive result in Spain?

Minimal, since according to the history, in their only match played in Spain they lost by three goals. 

These contexts explained in statistical terms, distort the samples and leave us with a graph similar to this:

Cristiano Ronaldo will be a decisive element

If Cristiano goes out on a good day, Manchester United's aspirations will improve for a good result. The Portuguese is not living his best moment, but the characteristic of the five-time golden ball winner is consistency.

Manchester United does not score goals: 54% chance

Manchester United scores a goal: 37% chance

Manchester United scores two goals: 11% chance

If Cristiano Ronaldo does not become that decisive player, he could harm his team and risk being eliminated from the competition, one of the Portuguese's favorites, which would cause a loss of quality and attraction

What System is applied to predict the outcome of Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United

At El Futbolero US, we decided to apply our own measurement system based on historical data of both teams with the help of "The Professor", knowledge of statistical patterns and Poisson distributions applicable through Python programming. 

Thanks to this we can predict the number of goals that each team can score based on historical results.

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