Trafford starts in Madrid, where any England win tops Spain thanks to that 7-0 in Croatia

Spain beat England 3-2 at Wembley in September and have won all five of their Nations League games, yet they walk into Sunday's group finale in Madrid knowing that a loss by any score would cost them first place in Group A3. The reason sits in England's goal difference, and most of it was built on one night in Croatia. Thomas Tuchel added another twist on Saturday when he confirmed that James Trafford, not Jordan Pickford, will start in goal at the Metropolitano.

Spain lead the group on 15 points with a 14-5 goal record. England are three points back on 12, but their record is 16-4, a goal difference of plus-12 against Spain's plus-nine. The 7-0 win in Croatia accounts for more than half of that cushion.

Under the Nations League rules, teams level on points are first separated by their head-to-head games. An England win by two or more goals settles it right there, because it would overturn the 3-2 defeat at Wembley. A one-goal win is the interesting case: both teams would have three points from the two meetings, the same head-to-head goal difference and the same number of goals scored. That sends the tie to overall goal difference, where England would finish five goals clear (plus-13 to plus-eight).

A draw or a Spain win keeps the world and European champions on top. England won 3-2 in Seville the last time they played Spain away, in 2018.

Tuchel said at his pre-match press conference that he will split the goalkeeping duties as he did in the September and October window, and that this match belongs to Trafford. "We want to see how far Traff is and we can give him the opportunity, which is normally very rare for goalkeepers, so we use the Nations League for exactly that to see him and to trust him in a high-pressure environment, in a high-pressure match," he said.

He also gets Ezri Konsa and Djed Spence back after both missed the 2-1 win over Croatia at Wembley, so he has his full choice of defenders. Tuchel called Spain "the biggest test in world football for national teams at the moment" and said England "were very close in Wembley in the first match." Harry Kane, who reached seven Nations League goals this season on the night he became England's most-capped men's player, said: "It's the perfect opportunity now on Sunday to try and prove ourselves."

Spain were stretched on Thursday, when they needed to grind out a 2-0 win in Prague without Lamine Yamal and several other regulars. Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal, who missed that game on paternity leave, are both back. Yamal, Spain's top scorer in the group with four goals, is listed with the No. 10 shirt instead of his usual 19 while Dani Olmo is out, according to AS and Eurosport Spain. Alejandro Grimaldo left the camp with a fever.

Luis de la Fuente would not say whether Yamal starts. "We'll see if he starts. If he does, it's because he's in perfect condition," he said. Álex Baena, who scored at Wembley, has two goals and two assists in five games in the competition.

Both teams are already in the quarterfinals, so Sunday is about the path. The four League A group winners are seeded for the Nov. 20 draw, face a runner-up from another group and play the second leg at home. Right now those runners-up are Greece, Denmark and France, so a seeded draw is not automatically soft. Still, for England the bigger prize is simple: win in Madrid, at 2:45 p.m. ET, and the deciding leg of the quarterfinal in late March comes back to Wembley.