Wales can't escape last place even by beating Portugal after Haaland's assist and penalty

Norway beat Wales 3-1 in Oslo on Saturday, and the result did more than avenge October's loss in Cardiff. Because Norway now win the head-to-head, Craig Bellamy's team can no longer finish above them or Denmark in Nations League Group A4, even if they beat Portugal on Tuesday.

For most of the first half, Wales looked like the team that had won in Cardiff. Daniel James had the best chances. He lobbed just past the far post on a counter in the 18th minute and forced Egil Selvik to punch away a powerful shot before halftime. Haaland, again, was quiet.

Norway's first shot on target was the goal. In the 59th minute, Antonio Nusa chested down a half-cleared corner and drilled a low shot from the edge of the box into the bottom corner past Karl Darlow. Nine minutes later, Nusa sent Haaland in, and instead of shooting, the Manchester City striker squared it across the box for substitute Andreas Schjelderup to finish.

David Brooks came off the bench and chipped one in from Harry Wilson's pass in the 79th minute, which gave Wales a chance. Then Ben Davies misjudged a headed clearance, Haaland intercepted and put Schjelderup through, and Connor Roberts brought him down. Haaland sent Darlow the wrong way from the spot in the 88th minute.

In the 2-1 loss in Cardiff last month, Haaland had 24 touches and two shots, with only one on target, a header straight at the goalkeeper. Before Saturday's game, Bellamy explained the plan: "Drive up and don't let him dictate," he said, according to ESPN. "You can't open up the middle too much because balls are going to come into his feet."

It held for most of the game. But one assist and a penalty took Haaland to 66 goals for Norway.

Norway and Denmark both have three more points than Wales with one game left, and Wales lose the head-to-head to both. That means fourth place, and BBC Sport reports that Wales are almost certain to face a relegation playoff against a League B team in March.

It also costs them something in the short term. Finishing third or better would have made Wales a top seed in December's draw for Euro 2028 qualifying, which Bellamy had called "a real motivation." Fourth place takes that off the table.

Wales finish the group at home to Portugal, the group leaders and reigning champions, in Cardiff on Tuesday. Norway visit Denmark the same night.