Portugal lost 4-1 at home to Denmark, and head-to-head could still cost them first place

Portugal needed only a draw in Braga to lock up first place in Nations League Group A4. They lost 4-1 to Denmark instead, in their first game since Cristiano Ronaldo retired from international football, and the margin matters more than the defeat itself: it flips the head-to-head with the Danes going into the final round.

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg put Denmark ahead from the penalty spot in the 43rd minute. Rasmus Højlund then scored twice early in the second half, first with a first-time finish at the far post from Mikkel Damsgaard's cross in the 49th minute and then with a curling shot inside the post in the 57th, set up by Højbjerg. Joachim Andersen made it 4-0 in the 75th minute from a Mathias Jensen assist. Bernardo Silva pulled one back in the 90th minute plus 3, finishing from the right side of the six-yard box after Mads Hermansen had saved João Neves' shot, a goal confirmed after a VAR review.

The BBC's match data shows it was not a game of one-way traffic. Possession was split almost exactly, 51.5% to 48.5% in Portugal's favor, and Portugal put eight shots on target to Denmark's six. Denmark took 17 shots to Portugal's 15 and had 28 touches in the Portuguese box to 24. The clearest gap was in fouls: Portugal committed 19, Denmark four.

Jorge Jesus started João Félix and Gonçalo Ramos up front, with Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha and Pedro Neto behind them, and changed three players in the 64th minute, bringing on Trincão, João Palhinha and Carlos Forbs. By then it was already 3-0.

Portugal had conceded four goals in their first four group games. They conceded four more in one night, and they still lead the group with 12 points to Denmark's nine. Norway's 3-1 win over Wales earlier on Saturday moved them to six, with Wales on three.

The problem is the head-to-head. Portugal won 4-2 in Copenhagen on Oct. 1, so the two results together now leave Denmark ahead 6-5 on aggregate. Under UEFA's tiebreakers, the sides would be level on head-to-head points, and the next criterion is head-to-head goal difference, which Denmark now hold by one. That means Denmark would finish first if the teams end level on points, which would happen if Portugal lose at Wales on Tuesday and Denmark beat Norway at home the same night.

For Portugal, a draw in Wales is enough to finish top. Denmark need to beat Norway and need Wales to do them a favor, the same Wales side that has not been able to climb off the bottom of the group.

It was a heavy first night of the post-Ronaldo era, but Portugal are still in control. The difference is that the margin for error that existed at kickoff has dissapeared, and a loss in Wales plus a Danish win over Norway would now cost them the group.