Mora's late goal means a 1-0 in Monterrey sends Mexico on, despite Márquez's winless start

Jamaica beat Mexico 3-2 in Kingston on Saturday in the first leg of their Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal, and Rafael Márquez is still waiting for his first win as Mexico's head coach. But the two goals Mexico scored in the last 20 minutes changed the math for Tuesday's second leg in Monterrey: because the away-goals rule is back for this round, a 1-0 win at Estadio BBVA would be enough to send Mexico through.

For more than an hour the night belonged to the Reggae Boyz. Jesús Gallardo turned a corner into his own net in the 28th minute, and Renaldo Cephas made it 2-0 just 34 seconds into the second half, ESPN reported, cutting inside his defender and curling the ball into the net. In the 63rd minute Richard King scored from the penalty spot after a long VAR review found that Kaheim Dixon had been fouled, according to the Jamaica Observer.

Then Gilberto Mora, Mexico's youngest player at 18, pulled one back. In the 70th minute he hit a shot from outside the box after a pass from Santiago Sandoval. Mora then broke clear again, and the move ended with Sandoval fouled in the area. Alexis Vega asked to take the penalty, but Julián Quiñones took the ball and scored in the 81st minute. Jamaica held on through the final minutes.

The loss leaves Márquez with two draws and three defeats in his first five games, according to Telemundo, and this was his first official match after four friendlies. ESPN's verdict was harsh: almost nothing is working, the right-back spot is still a weak point and Santiago Giménez isn't scoring, and Mora is the only player keeping up the level he showed at the World Cup.

History makes the result look even worse. Jamaica's last two wins over Mexico before Saturday were a 1-0 World Cup qualifier in Kingston in October 2008 and a 1-0 Gold Cup semifinal in Pasadena in 2017, according to FBref. Mexico had gone six straight games without losing to them since then. Mexico are also the defending Nations League champions, and Claro Sports noted that this series comes with a direct spot at the 2027 Gold Cup.

Concacaf's regulations for the quarterfinals go to aggregate score first and then to away goals. If away goals are also level, the second leg goes to 30 minutes of extra time, where away goals don't count, and then penalties.

That makes thier two away goals very valuable. A 1-0 Mexico win makes it 3-3 on aggregate, with Mexico ahead on away goals, 2-0. A 2-1 win also sends Mexico through. A 3-2 Mexico win would leave everything level and force extra time. For Jamaica, any draw is enough, and so is a loss by one goal if they score three. Mexico have never lost at home to Jamaica, with six wins and two draws, according to FutDados.

The second leg kicks off Tuesday, Nov. 17, at 8:30 p.m. central Mexico time (9:30 p.m. ET). Márquez can still get a result that saves this series and his start in the job, but he will need more than one 18-year-old to do it. If Mexico concede early in Monterrey, the math that looked so friendly on Saturday night turns against them quickly.