Greece's 7-0 loss in Amsterdam means a Germany win in Berlin is all Klopp's side need

Germany go into Monday's Nations League finale against the Netherlands at Berlin's Olympiastadion (20:45 CET, 14:45 ET) with a simpler job than the Group A2 table suggests. They are third on 8 points, level with Greece and three behind the Dutch, and they lose the head-to-head with Greece. But a win of any size sends Jürgen Klopp's team to the March quarterfinals regardless of what Greece do against Serbia in Volos, and the reason is the 7-0 the Netherlands put on Greece in Amsterdam on Friday.

Head-to-head comes before overall goal difference in this season's competition. If Germany win and Greece beat winless Serbia, all three teams finish on 11 points, and each collects 5 points in the games between them. The next tiebreaker is goal difference in those games, and Greece's sits at minus six because of Friday's result. Germany would finish at least second. If Greece fail to win, Germany are simply ahead of them on points.

UEFA's own breakdown lines up with that: Germany top the group if they win and Greece do not beat Serbia, and a draw only works for Germany if Greece lose. The Netherlands, unbeaten with 11 points, can only miss the top two through a swing of roughly 14 goals.

Germany beat Serbia 3-1 on Friday, going 2-0 up inside 14 minutes through a Srdjan Babić own goal and Florian Wirtz, before Brajan Gruda added another. Jamal Musiala and Serge Gnabry are out with seperate muscle problems, and previews expect Gruda, Wirtz and Derry Scherhant behind Kai Havertz again. Klopp has called the game a "final," according to Goal.

The first meeting in this group finished 1-1 in Amsterdam, with Cody Gakpo equalizing in stoppage time after Felix Nmecha's opener. Germany's only group defeat came against Greece, 1-0 on Sept. 27, followed by a 0-0 on matchday four. That is exactly why they now need a result against the stronger opponent.

Xavi's side arrive without two key pieces. Virgil van Dijk sat out the whole window, so Micky van de Ven and Jan Paul van Hecke are expected at center back. Frenkie de Jong came off at halftime against Greece with back pain and has gone back to Barcelona for treatment, which opens the way for Teun Koopmeiners alongside Joey Veerman, with Tijani Reijnders at No. 10 after his first-half hat-trick on Friday.

The Dutch are unbeaten in their last seven away games, but they have won only one of their last six visits to Germany.

The Opta supercomputer gives Germany a 43.5% chance of winning, the Netherlands 29.8% and a draw 26.8%, per Al Jazeera. For Germany, the scenario is the cleanest it has been all autumn: win, and the other result doesn't matter.