Greece can clinch their Nations League group in Amsterdam tonight, and Van Dijk won't play

Greece have never beaten the Netherlands in a senior competitive match. If they do it on Friday night in Amsterdam, they win their Nations League group. Both teams arrive unbeaten on eight points at the top of League A Group 2, and UEFA's own scenarios are blunt: a Greek win at the Johan Cruijff ArenA confirms Greece as group winners and sends them to the quarterfinals with a game to spare.

The Netherlands lead only on goals scored. For Xavi's side, a win sends them through if Germany fail to beat Serbia in Belgrade at the same time, and a draw is enough if Germany lose. Greece can also go through with a draw, as long as Germany don't win in Serbia. Kickoff in both games is 8:45 p.m. CET, or 2:45 p.m. ET.

Germany sit three points back with five, so the two games tonight are really one. The last round is Monday, when the Dutch visit Germany in Berlin and Greece host Serbia, who have lost all four of their games.

Virgil van Dijk withdrew from the squad on Monday. The Dutch federation said he did not return fit from Liverpool's 3-1 win at Crystal Palace, a game in which he kept up his run of playing every Premier League minute this season. Sunderland striker Brian Brobbey also pulled out, and Ryan Gravenberch is missing too.

Xavi called up Brentford's Sepp van den Berg, 24 and uncapped, as cover on Tuesday. But the matchday list UEFA published Friday morning left him out: the squad has 24 players and only 23 can be named, so his debut will have to wait, NOS and De Telegraaf reported. That points to Jan Paul van Hecke and Jurrien Timber in the middle of the back four, the pairing most previews expect.

Greece were only promoted from League B last time around, and they have taken eight points from a group with Germany and the Netherlands in it. They beat Serbia with a stoppage-time winner from Tasos Douvikas, beat Germany 1-0 and then held Jürgen Klopp's team to a 0-0 draw at home.

The game in between is the one the Dutch remember. Greece led 2-0 in Thessaloniki in October with about half an hour left, before Van Dijk and substitute Tijjani Reijnders scored to make it 2-2. That was as close as Greece have come to a competitive win over the Netherlands, who also won both Euro 2024 qualifiers between them.

Ivan Jovanović will be missing two regulars. Christos Zafeiris and Manolis Saliakas both picked up their second booking of the campaign against Germany and serve one-match bans, so Lazaros Rota or Georgios Vagiannidis is expected at right back.

For the Netherlands, the risk is simple. Lose tonight and they go to Berlin on Monday needing a result against a Germany side that might be level with them. Win, and Greece's best campaign at this level turns into a fight for second place.