Mexico vs USMNT CONCACAF Qualifiers predictions: who is more likely to win?

Both teams share second place in the standings, but far behind Canada. They need to win to consolidate their qualification and definitely get a direct ticket to Qatar 2022, a World Cup that promises many surprises and stars who, as of today, have not secured their ticket. One of them is Cristiano Ronaldo. 

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Let's remember that the Mexican national team is going through a very tense situation regarding the continuity of its coach, Gerardo Martino. Mexican media claim that if they do not win against the United States they could return to instability after the victory against Panama.

Both teams have 21 points in the general table, with 6 matches won, 3 tied and 2 lost, an unusual parity between both teams since it is a 100% similarity. 

Who is the favorite between Mexico and the United States in the Qatar 2022 qualifiers?

If we analyze the last 11 matches played between the two, Mexico has a slight advantage of 5 points won against the 4 of the United States and 2 that resulted in draws. 

This graph shows the parity between the two teams, which has been maintained even in recent history. 

Place your bets: what is the probability that Mexico will beat USMNT by two goals or more?

Mexico has a 26.18% chance of scoring two goals against the United States playing at home, this would ensure a win against the classic rival. 

The highest probability is for Mexico to score one or two goals. Winning by three goals or more weakens the chances and in this match, the probability of a possible Tri victory is diluted. 

With this chart, we affirm the passage of the Mexican National Team to the World Cup Qatar 2022. 

Can the United States beat Mexico away?

Almost none. We are sorry to be determinant but they have a 45.29% probability of not scoring goals in this match, something that takes them away from the illusion of fighting the match against El Tri. 

But we cannot deny that they are a team that always knows how to overcome adversity, so they have a probability of 14.21% to score two away goals, something that has not happened for a long time in away matches. 

What system is used to predict this data?

In El Futbolero Mexico, we decided to apply our measurement system based on historical data of both teams helped by "The Professor", knowing statistical patterns and distributions in Poisson applicable through programming in Phyton.

Thanks to this we can predict the number of goals that each team can score based on historical results.

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