Honduras vs Mexico: Who is the favorite to win? Here's what the predictions say for the Concacaf Nations League match

The match between Honduras and Mexico has the Mexican National Team as the favorite according to predictions for this Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal match. The game will take place at the Francisco Morazán Stadium in San Pedro Sula. Below, we analyze the key players, strategies to win, and probabilities for this thrilling encounter.

Key Player for the Mexican National Team

Raúl Jiménez, the Leader of Mexico's Attack

Raúl Jiménez, 33 years old, is the offensive leader of the Mexican national team. His career highlights include winning the Gold Cup, the Spanish Super Cup, and multiple championships in Portugal with Benfica, showcasing his experience in critical matches. With 35 goals in 105 international appearances for Mexico, Jiménez not only contributes to scoring but also excels in playmaking with his ability to connect with teammates.

Currently playing for Fulham in the Premier League, Jiménez has proven his form with 5 goals in the 2024/25 season—4 in the league and 1 in the EFL Cup. In his recent performance with "El Tri", he was instrumental in the 2-0 victory over the United States, scoring a spectacular free-kick goal. His presence, leadership, and goal-scoring instinct make him the main threat to the Honduran defense.

Key Player for Honduras

Kervin Arriaga, the Potential Engine of the Honduran Team

With the absence of "Choco" Lozano and Andy Ruiz, Kervin Arriaga emerges as the key player for Honduras. The 26-year-old midfielder, currently playing for Partizan Belgrade in the Serbian SuperLiga, is known for his physical strength and versatility in midfield. Arriaga has played 27 matches for the Honduran national team, scoring 4 goals, and is vital in ball recovery and play creation.

In his current season, Arriaga has featured in 29 matches across all competitions, contributing 3 goals and 1 assist. His ability to control the game's tempo and his imposing physical presence will be essential to counter Mexico's offensive power and maintain balance in midfield.

What Do They Need to Do to Win?

Mexico

To secure victory, Mexico must leverage its solid defense, led by players like Luis Malagón, and its offensive capabilities, where Raúl Jiménez and César Huerta have been standout performers. "El Tri" should dominate possession, create opportunities through Edson Álvarez in midfield, and avoid defensive mistakes. High pressing will also be crucial to limiting Honduras' options. The experience of Mexican players in international leagues and their recent team cohesion give them a slight edge. Aguirre might also introduce tactical surprises by incorporating players from Cruz Azul.

Honduras

Honduras must capitalize on set pieces and utilize the speed of their wingers to attack on the flanks. Goalkeeper Edrick Menjívar will play a key role in keeping the scoreline tight during the early stages. In the absence of Lozano, forward players must be at their best to exploit any lapses in the Mexican defense. Discipline in defense and avoiding open spaces in the final third will be critical for Honduras.

Who Has the Better Chance of Winning?

According to predictions, Mexico has a 43.37% chance of winning, with odds of 1.78 on Betsson, while Honduras has a 37.85% chance of victory. Despite playing at home, Honduras' recent performances and the quality of Mexican players tilt the balance in favor of "El Tri". A close match is expected, but Mexico holds a slight advantage.