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Deportivo Guastatoya vs Club León 2022 Concacaf Champions League Prediction: Who is more likely to win in the first leg?

The Guatemalan team will try to win at home against the Mexican team León.

The two teams will meet for the first time in their history.
The two teams will meet for the first time in their history.

Guastatoya, the team nicknamed "Pecho Amarillo" (Yellow Chest) will once again participate internationally in the region's top club competition. Their rival will be Club León of Mexico's Liga MX, who reached the final last tournament and lost to Atlas.

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Guastayota has been champion of the Guatemalan National League three times (Clausura and Apertura 2018 and Apertura 2020). The team known as Pecho Amarillos were founded just in 2015 and play their home games at the David Cordón stadium with a capacity of 3100 fans.

The Mexican squad is looking to advance to the next stage of the Scotiabank Concacaf Champions League without struggling. The bets are in favor of Ariel Holan’s team but they must show why they are the runners-up of the Liga MX. León are currently in twelfth place in the Liga MX and have not had a good start to the season.

Guastatoya and its Concachampions record 

There is no record between the two clubs, but the so-called Pecho Amarillo, a club originally from the departmental capital of El Progreso, will have the opportunity to play in the CONCACAF Champions League for the second time in its history.

Guastatoya's debut was in 2019, after qualifying for the tournament as the winner of the playoff against Antigua GFC, and in its first participation, Guastatoya faced the MLS outfit Houston Dynamo of the United States in the round of 16. The MLS team won the round of 16 with a 3-1 aggregate score.

For this new edition of the Concachampions, the winner between Guastatoya and León will advance to the quarterfinals, where the opponent will be the winner between Seattle Sounders and Motagua.

Club León and its negative streak in international tournaments

To date, La Fiera has not been able to excel in any of the international tournaments it has played in, both in the Concacaf Champions League and the Copa Libertadores.

The failures are countless, among them, the following can be listed: 

Concacaf 1993: lost first place in a four-team playoff when they lost to Saprissa of Costa Rica.

Concacaf 1998: They were eliminated in the semifinals by DC United, a team from the MLS.

Copa Libertadores 2013 and 2014: Eliminated in the playoffs by Deportes Iquique and Bolivar in the round of 16. 

Concacaf 2014: Eliminated in the group stage by Herediano of Costa Rica. 

Concacaf 2020: Lost in the round of 16 to LAFC.

Concacaf 2021: Leon was eliminated by Toronto FC. 

Deportivo Guastatoya vs Leon: Match Prediction

For this first leg, the predictions for both teams are as follows: 

Guastatoya wins 47%

Draw: 20% 

León wins 33%.

What System is applied to predict the outcome of Guastatoya vs León

At El Futbolero US, we decided to apply our own measurement system based on historical data of both teams with the help of "The Professor", knowledge of statistical patterns and Poisson distributions applicable through Python programming. 

Thanks to this we can predict the number of goals that each team can score based on historical results.

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