Paraguay vs Ecuador CONMEBOL Qualifying: ‘La TRI’ get the point it needs to qualify for Qatar?

Ecuador only needs one point to qualify for the dream World Cup in Qatar 2022. Paraguay is only playing for pride. Different responsibilities, different contexts, but the same goal: to win.

More News:

Why is Diego Simeone the highest-paid coach in Europe? Here are all his statistics

The two teams have met 41 times in all competitions. Paraguay has 22 wins while Ecuador has 12. The other seven games have ended in draws.

In terms of distribution, Paraguay won 53.7% of the matches played against Ecuador.

Ecuador's odds

The TRI has to bet on a close game, with a clear game strategy, with all the lines armed and each player fulfilling the assigned functions because, playing this role, the probabilities are higher.

Expressed in numbers, Ecuador has a 44% chance of not scoring an away goal against Paraguay and a 36% chance of scoring only one goal. 

From the second goal onwards, the probabilities start to decrease exponentially, so a game of few goals for Ecuador is predicted.

Paraguay's odds

The outlook is different for the Paraguayans, whose highest odds are between 1 and 3 goals on the scoreboard. Undoubtedly, these odds are influenced by their very favorable record against the Guarani team.

Given Ecuador's current context as one of the best teams in South America, these odds decrease while the probability of Paraguay not scoring against Ecuador rises to 18%.

Methodology applied

To evaluate the number of goals that occur in a given amount of time we use a Poisson distribution that calculates the probabilities of a given number of goals occurring in 90 minutes of play.

The application of the model is done with Python by our data analyst of El Futbolero.

More News:

Who is Franck Kessie, FC Barcelona's new player, how much does his pass cost, and how many millions would he earn?