By El Profesor
This weekend, Argentine soccer and the entire country will be paralyzed by a new Super Clasico as the long-time rivals will face each other in the interzonal duel.
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This is a very special match as it corresponds to the date of Clásicos, such as River vs Boca, Independiente vs Racing, Rosario Central vs Newell's, among others.
River has a negative balance of three defeats, three draws and only one victory in the last matches played at the Monumental. However, this negative record was recently broken in the middle of a tournament that would end in the best possible way.
The first and only match against Boca as a home team in the Professional League was on October 3, 2021, on the 14th date of the last tournament, when River was the champion.
In this graph, you can see the probability of the Millonarios to beat Boca Juniors' goal.
There is a high probability that it will be a close game and it is difficult for River to score according to the record, although with the "Alvarez" factor these probabilities could shift the graph to the right, increasing the probability of scoring more than two goals.
River goalless: 37.62% chance
River scores 1 goal: 36.78% chance
River scores 2 goals: 17.98% chance
River scores 3 goals: 5.86% chance
Similar to what happens with River's odds, Boca has a better chance of scoring a goal than River since its probability of not scoring is minimally lower than that of River.
As I said before, this is according to the history but the present of the Rivera team is below its normal values so that, unlike River, playing away and adding the context of the present, Boca's graph tends to run to the left increasing its probabilities of not scoring goals in away games.
Boca goalless: 31.6% probability
Boca scores 1 goal: 36.4% probability
Boca scores 2 goals: 20.97% chance
Boca scores 3 goals: 8.05% chance
The study aims to determine the probability of the number of goals scored by the teams when River Plate plays at home and Boca Juniors plays away (River vs Boca). In this context, a set of historical matches between the two teams from 1980 onwards was used.
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